Almost eighteen months ago, in front of a robotic arm at the high-tech National Composites Centre in Bristol, then-Opposition Leader Sir Keir Starmer set out his hopeful government’s ‘mission-driven’ stall. After a sustained period of high drama in UK politics, one of the many promises that were presented was this: “I promise a politics that treads a little lighter on all of our lives”.
Ten months on from his election as Prime Minister, I think the only response to that laudable aim can be: he – and we – should be so lucky! Across the board and around the world, in government, civil society, culture, and commerce, politics – especially relating to one man in particular, Donald Trump – has dominated our lives over the past 100 or so days.
Over recent weeks and months, I have spoken to Chairs, NEDs and CEOs about how Boards are facing into a period of uncertainty the likes of which we’ve never seen before, and the results of these conversations culminated in our latest report, Uncertainty 2.0, which we published earlier this week as part of our Boards of the Future series.
“Across the board and around the world, in government, civil society, culture, and commerce, politics – especially relating to one man in particular, Donald Trump – has dominated our lives over the past 100 or so days.”
It’s true that businesses and Boards have always needed to navigate uncertainty, but leaders in 2025 are now in a position where they could wake up with little to no warning and find major changes and interventions that weigh heavily on their business’s fundamentals.
For consumer-facing businesses, the instability started early in this term. After Chinese-owned TikTok temporarily switched off its services in the US – its biggest market by both audience size and e-commerce sales – Trump effectively lifted the ban on his first day in office by signing the first of many executive orders that were to come over the following weeks. In the meantime, another Chinese-owned social platform, RedNote, was forced to suddenly introduce English language support as three million American users migrated over in response to the ban. It only lasted 12 hours, but Trump’s response was surprising, as it was he who first looked to institute a ban on TikTok as President in 2020.
At the beginning of February, when a 25% tariff was put in place on imports from Canada and Mexico, it got fashion consumers and commentators worried about businesses like SSENSE – and we all know the tariff rollercoaster that followed. More recently, Mark Carney, who won the Canadian election this week, responded strongly to Trump’s announcement that he believes Canada should be annexed as a US state, calling for a dramatic reshape of his government’s relationship with the US. In his victory speech, he said: “Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over.”
But perhaps the most striking example is another story from this week, which saw Amazon described as a hostile political actor in the White House briefing room, just hours before Trump called Jeff Bezos a ‘very good guy’.
The common thread amongst these examples is not so much the content of the policy or intervention, but the way in which they are implemented and then reversed at speed. Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent has described the approach as ‘strategic uncertainty’, designed to provoke a response. This style of governance is not one that we have seen coming out of the US before, and it is having a profound impact on the world, and within that, business, thanks to the visible lack of coherence which has made it difficult for business leaders to make plans.
Expecting the unexpected has become par for the course for many leadership teams, as these first 100 days have proven that Trump makes decisions with his gut. Even those closest to him don’t always seem to know what’s coming next, and this has meant that Boards are needing to work under the assumption that even something as small as a vague post on social media could be enough to completely alter the stock market. An example of this requires revisiting his policy on tariffs which not only sparked a trade war with China that capitulated chaotically towards the implementation of 145% tariffs on all Chinese imports, but it also severely impacted supply chains. However, thanks to the pandemic, many Boards have built risk planning into their strategies, so they have a contingency plan for when major changes like this take place.
These contingency plans include ensuring that there is someone who is sat around the table, asking difficult questions with risk in mind. This is likely a NED – as Chairs are too busy running the shop to take on this role – who can think about possible future challenges and guide the Board to think about how to deal with them ahead of time.
“Expecting the unexpected has become par for the course for many leadership teams, as these first 100 days have proven that Trump makes decisions with his gut.”
Because of these changes, Boards are remaining flexible and agile to keep up with the pace of change. This could be the response of companies to the shift in thinking around DEI, as many have become quieter externally in line with the current climate, or it could mean ensuring that they don’t get too caught up in the immediacy and continue to look ahead towards the medium and long term, keeping one eye on the business’s position in the big picture.
When bringing Uncertainty 2.0 together, we tested the five principles we set out in our manifesto in 2021 to see if they still held relevance today. Each Chair, NED and executive we spoke to agreed that they were still as relevant today as they were four years ago as principles for guiding Boards of the future. However, there are two small tweaks. The first was that Boards need to incorporate AI into their agendas and the second, in these constantly changing times, was to have a Board that is grounded by deep industry experience, rather than by ‘veteran’ experience, which implied stoicism and inflexibility.
In 2025, our five principles are:
- The Board of the future fosters diverse thinking
- The Board of the future grasps digital, data, AI and technology
- The Board of the future is grounded by deep industry experience
- The Board of the future understands a company’s place in the big picture
- The Board of the future recognises its directors as individual role models
With such rapid change in just the first hundred days of this Presidency, and new headlines breaking every day, the future is unclear. But what is clear, is how Boards can ensure that they are prepared to be agile and able to adapt whilst still remaining mission driven – and, fundamentally, continue to expect the unexpected for the foreseeable.
